Field reports, macro reads, and post-mortems from the ground team. The numbers we underwrite with — and the ones that make us walk away.
Prices holding at BGN 1,500/m² with a modest 2% YoY uptick. The deepest value pockets sit on the periphery; regulatory risk is legible on page 22. Full report inside.
Three letters, three walls between your capital and any other project on the platform. What the Special Purpose Vehicle actually does, and — more usefully — what it does not.
The largest active land position in the book, quarter-by-quarter. Where the eighty per cent completion figure comes from, and what has to happen for the exit window to hold.
Currency risk gone is the obvious lift; the material change is on the capital-cost side. Term structure, mortgage spread compression, and the two SPV clauses we had to rewrite.
A candid conversation on the 360° model — design-to-delivery execution, long-term value focus, and the calls that got walked back.
Layout, materials, and the four specification choices that shifted realised yield by more than four hundred basis points across thirteen VIFLIP exits. Not taste. Yield.
Three thousand four hundred sixty-two square metres of unentitled land, acquired for €680K in 2021, run through the full entitlement cycle in-house, and exited via share sale in August 2025.
Macro plus district-level Sofia. Twelve indicators, one page, refreshed by the fifth of each month. What we look at before we write a term sheet.
One issue per month. The macro read, one deep-dive, and the projects reaching commitment stage. No syndication of realtor content. Unsubscribe with one click.
Field reports, macro reads, and post-mortems from the ground team. The numbers we underwrite with — and the ones that make us walk away.
Prices holding at BGN 1,500/m² with a modest 2% YoY uptick. The deepest value pockets sit on the periphery; regulatory risk is legible on page 22. Full report inside.
Every quarter I get asked: “What deals are you working on?” It’s the wrong question. The better one: “What did you turn down — and why?”
Three letters, three walls between your capital and any other project on the platform. What the Special Purpose Vehicle actually does, and — more usefully — what it does not.
The largest active land position in the book, quarter-by-quarter. Where the eighty per cent completion figure comes from, and what has to happen for the exit window to hold.
First quarterly letter VIG has ever published. Two exits closed, €1.4M deployed, AIF on track for Q3 2026, and a public commitment to the cadence going forward.
Currency risk gone is the obvious lift; the material change is on the capital-cost side. Term structure, mortgage spread compression, and the two SPV clauses we had to rewrite.
A candid conversation on the 360° model — design-to-delivery execution, long-term value focus, and the calls that got walked back.
Layout, materials, and the four specification choices that shifted realised yield by more than four hundred basis points across thirteen VIFLIP exits. Not taste. Yield.
Macro plus district-level Sofia. Twelve indicators, one page, refreshed by the fifth of each month. What we look at before we write a term sheet.
€/m² YoY change · Source: NSI, Imoti.net, VIG deal-flow tracker · 30 Jun 2026.
What the economy is signalling about purchasing power, financing costs, and foreign capital appetite for Bulgarian assets.
Above the EU-27 average; driven by domestic demand and EU-funded capex. Source: Eurostat / NSI.
Inflation approaching the ECB target, supportive of eurozone accession path. Source: Eurostat HICP.
BGN pegged to EUR at 1.95583; BNB rate tracks the ECB environment. Source: Bulgarian National Bank.
Manufacturing + real estate dominate; a positive indicator for exit demand. Source: BNB balance of payments.
City-level averages hide a wide district spread. VIG's Sofia thesis anchors on prime-location residential, convergence-compressed €/m², and yields that outperform mature markets.
Weighted city average. District spread is wide: Vitosha / Lozenets above €2,500, outer belts below €1,200. Source: NSI + market aggregators.
Sofia trades at ~47–53% of the EU-27 average on a €/m² basis — convergence upside. Source: Eurostat HPI 2025.
Compares favourably to mature EU markets at 3–4% gross. Net yield after vacancy / management typically 4.0–5.0%. Source: VIG market compilation.
Supply expanding. Class-B commodity stock risk is rising; value-add and prime-location plays remain favoured. Source: NSI construction statistics.
Indicative residential €/m² and gross rental yield by district. Figures reflect VIG’s market compilation and are directional, not transaction-level.
Yields are gross, before vacancy, management, taxes, and capex reserves. Net yields typically run 70–80% of gross. District figures are directional.
Policy shifts matter more than price ticks for an investment horizon. Four items we are tracking actively.
Bulgaria continues to meet the Maastricht convergence criteria. Joining the eurozone would remove BGN currency-conversion friction for non-BG investors and is a tailwind for EU retail capital flows into Sofia property.
Bulgaria hosts a functioning AIFMD regime via the FSC (KFN). VIG is preparing a VIG AIF registration; timing subject to regulatory review.
Investor-residency programmes across the EU have tightened. The Bulgarian residency-by-investment route continues under narrower conditions; relevant for non-EU investors considering BG residency alongside capital allocation.
After two years of double-digit material-cost inflation, the Bulgarian construction index is returning to single-digit growth. Margin pressure on new developments is easing.
These are the same reports VIG’s team produces for internal underwriting — macro, property, policy, and outlook.
The first quarter of 2026 opened with interest rates steady, Sofia prices continuing to grind higher but with spread narrowing between districts. Foreign capital stepped back modestly, domestic capital stepped in.
While most mature European property markets posted flat or declining nominal prices, Sofia delivered mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth depending on district.
These are the same reports VIG’s team produces for internal underwriting — macro, property, policy, and outlook.
Q4 closed with Bulgaria meeting the Maastricht convergence criteria for a third consecutive reading. Sofia Class-A residential inventory remained thin.
Summer 2025 brought a notable uptick in new housing starts across Sofia outer districts, particularly Lyulin and Druzhba. Prime-location pricing held firm.
One issue per month. The macro read, one deep-dive, and the projects reaching commitment stage. No syndication of realtor content. Unsubscribe with one click.
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