Every quarter, I get asked the same question: “What deals are you working on?”
It’s the wrong question. The better one: “What did you turn down — and why?”
The Filter Is the Product
Since formalizing our Four-Filter Framework in 2024, VIG has reviewed over 200 potential opportunities. We’ve committed to 9. That’s a selection rate of about 5%.
Our current metric — 13% deal selection rate — is already well below industry averages. Most developers in Sofia will tell you they look at “many” deals. Few will tell you how many they killed and why. We track both.
The Four Filters
Every opportunity goes through the same evaluation: 1. Demand Trajectory — Is capital flowing before the market prices it in? 2. Product-Market Fit — Does the product match real buyer behaviour? 3. Downside Integrity — Does the deal hold under stress conditions? 4. Exit Architecture — Is the return path defined before entry?
All four must clear. One red flag kills the deal.
Why This Matters Now
Sofia’s residential market grew 16.3% in 2025. The Euro arrived in January 2026. Interest from international investors is rising.
In this environment, the temptation is to do more. Every developer in Sofia is looking at land right now. We are too. But looking is not buying.
The quality of our portfolio comes from what we exclude, not what we include. Our three completed projects all returned 100% of capital plus profit. Our six active projects are all on track. This track record exists because we applied the same filter to every opportunity.
The Most Expensive Mistake in Real Estate
It’s not a deal that goes wrong. It’s a deal that was marginal to begin with — one that you took because the pipeline “needed” it, or because the market was moving and you didn’t want to miss out.
We’ve seen this pattern destroy more value in Bulgarian real estate than any market downturn. We haven’t had that experience — because we didn’t change our filter when the market heated up.
What This Means for Investors
When you invest with VIG, you’re investing in a system that kills more deals than it takes. That discipline is your first layer of capital protection.
Anyone can show you winning projects. The question is what they turned down to get there.
We turn down 87% of everything we see. And we sleep well.
Views expressed are those of the author. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not investment advice.