Opportunity Flow Discipline
We Say No to 83% of What We See.
Since 2022, VIG has evaluated 53 real estate opportunities across Sofia. 9 became portfolio projects. 44 were declined — every exit point with a documented rationale. This page shows the filter, the data, and the receipts.
Rejection rate · 2022–2026
Deal Flow Funnel · 2022–2026
From 53 sourced to 9 deployed.
Five stages. Each one filters out deals that fail the criteria. The intermediate counts (~40 / ~22 / ~14) are approximate — the endpoints are exact.
Opportunities Identified
53 · 100%
Off-market scouting, broker networks, institutional and bank-originated channels.
Passed Initial Screen
~40 · 75%
Deal Scout sanity check on price-vs-zoning, location viability, basic market fit.
Full Feasibility Modeled
~22 · 42%
DCF, three-scenario model, entry price tested against Registry Agency comps.
Reached IC Review
~14 · 26%
30-minute Investment Committee slot. Present, challenge, decide.
Portfolio Projects
9 · 17%
All four mandatory gates cleared. Capital deployed.
44 declined. 9 approved. Every exit point documented.
Four Mandatory Gates
Fail any one. Get declined. No exceptions.
Smart Deal Filter
Base-case net profitability must clear 20%. Entry tested against Registry Agency comps, not asking prices. Costs modeled parametrically.
Fortress Balance Sheet
6-month OpEx reserve stays intact post-deployment. HQ overhead stays under 25% of gross profit. No bank holds more than 50% of debt.
Three-Scenario Model
Base, Best, and Worst submitted for every deal. Worst must remain viable — VIG can exit without capital loss under rate or velocity shocks.
Legal Clearance
No unresolved title, zoning, encumbrance, or regulatory issues. Sr. RE Lawyer signs off before any capital commitment.
The Investment Committee runs every deal above €500K through these four tests in a 30-minute slot: 10 minutes to present, 10 minutes to challenge, 10 minutes to decide. The CEO makes the final go / no-go call.
Why Deals Get Declined
44 declines, by primary reason.
Every decline maps to one primary category. Multiple flags often appear on the same deal — only the controlling reason is recorded.
Price / Profitability <20%
18 · 41%
Entry price too high relative to exit value after construction and financing.
Location Risk
9 · 20%
Peripheral neighborhoods, secondary markets, weak buyer demand.
Strategic Misalignment
8 · 18%
Commercial, retail, public sector — outside the residential mandate.
Legal / Title Complexity
3 · 7%
Encumbrances, disputed ownership, zoning restrictions that resist resolution.
Counterparty / Structure Risk
3 · 7%
Unreliable sellers, consortium governance, unclear deal structure.
Execution Capacity
3 · 7%
Team bandwidth or capital requirements would compromise active projects.
Price, Location, and Strategic Fit account for 79% of declines. The filter does what it was built to do: protect capital from overpaying, weak locations, and scope creep.
The Receipts
Three deals we walked away from.
When price kills a deal
11 August Street
516 sqm building near the National Opera, offered at €1,550,000. Recent renovation, mixed-use, strong fundamentals. Entry price relative to GFA, plus VAT complexity on renovation costs and the capital intensity of mixed-use conversion, pushed base-case profitability under 20%. Declined. Capital redirected to higher-yield residential pipeline.
When strategy says no
H&M Bulgaria · Israeli Package
Both portfolio-scale acquisitions. Both required absorbing commercial or retail exposure and stepping outside residential. Declined on strategic misalignment — the risk-return profile did not fit the mandate, regardless of the headline numbers.
When capacity is the constraint
Vitosha City
Large-scale development. Viable on paper, but capital and team bandwidth would have compromised active projects. VIG prioritized reliable delivery on committed work over chasing the next opportunity.
Process Maturation
Reactive · Systematic · Formalized.
2022–2023
Legacy Archive
31
Projects evaluated
Reactive screening. Deals arrived through informal channels and were rejected with varying levels of documentation. The discipline was there. The system was not.
2024–2025
Structured Pipeline
11
Projects evaluated
CP_ numbering convention. Dedicated deal folders. Standardized feasibility models with parametric benchmarks.
2026+
Governance Playbook
2+
Projects evaluated
Mandatory Investment Committee gates. Four pass/fail tests for every deal above €500K. 72-hour decision velocity. Full rationale documented for every decline.
Declined Projects Register
The full list. With a rationale per row.
The summary below is public. The full register — all 44 projects with type, DD stage reached, and decline rationale — is in the PDF.
| Period | Declined | Top decline reasons |
|---|---|---|
| 2022–2023 | 31 | Price (13) · Location (6) · Strategy (5) · Legal (2) · Counterparty (2) · Capacity (2) · Other (1) |
| 2024–2025 | 11 | Price (6) · Location (2) · Strategy (1) · Seller withdrew (1) · Price/zoning (1) |
| 2025–2026 | 2 | Strategy (1) · Batch decline (1) |
VIG Deal Screening & Decline Register
All 44 declined opportunities (2022–2026), with project type, DD stage reached, and primary decline reason. Some financial fields are marked TBD — backfill from deal folders is in progress.
Marked Confidential. Distribution intended for credentialed investors and counterparties. Sharing details requires VIG consent.
Discipline creates returns.
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